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ACUS01 KWNS 281626

SWODY1

SPC AC 281625



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024



Valid 281630Z - 291200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...AND

SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS....



...SUMMARY...

Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with

the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few

tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.



...East TX/LA/Southern AR...

A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight

has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. 

Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the

east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and

little inhibition.  This will result in rejuvenation of storms by

mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary.  Forecast

soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for

supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a

few tornadoes.  This activity will spread eastward through the

evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind

gusts and isolated tornadoes.



...OK/AR/MO...

The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across

much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud

cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s.  Many of

the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to

this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late

afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at

this time.  Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK

seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and

a tornado or two from this activity.  Storms that form will spread

eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening.



..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2024



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