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ACUS01 KWNS 281945

SWODY1

SPC AC 281943



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0243 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024



Valid 282000Z - 291200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF

EASTERN TEXAS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AREA...



...SUMMARY...

Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with

the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few

tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.



...20Z Update...

Little overall change was made to the existing outlook, as

potential, as well as uncertainty, remain over a large region.



An upper trough with cool temperatures aloft remains over the

Plains, with midlevel temperature gradient from IA into eastern OK

and southwestward across northern TX. Satellite imagery as well as

surface observations continue to show gradual heating and

destabilization as clouds thin from the decaying early day MCS.

Given substantial southwest flow aloft and at least a marginally

unstable air mass over most of the region, little change was made to

most of the outlook area. The greatest severe risk looks to be

centered over eastern TX toward the ArkLaTex and toward the Sabine

Valley late, in closer proximity to stronger instability.



Farther north across eastern OK into AR and southern MO, an

increasing low-level jet late this evening and right-entrance region

of the upper jet may yield a more concentrated corridor of strong to

perhaps severe storm potential after 00Z and into the night.



..Jewell.. 04/28/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024/



...East TX/LA/Southern AR...

A long-lived large nocturnal MCS that affected much of TX overnight

has weakened substantially, but remains over parts of east TX. 

Ample low-level moisture and moderate instability is present to the

east of this activity, along with deep southerly low-level winds and

little inhibition.  This will result in rejuvenation of storms by

mid-afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary.  Forecast

soundings in this area show sufficient deep-layer shear for

supercell structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a

few tornadoes.  This activity will spread eastward through the

evening into LA/southern AR, with a continued risk of damaging wind

gusts and isolated tornadoes.



...OK/AR/MO...

The overnight MCS has significantly affected the air mass across

much of eastern OK/western AR/southern MO, with expansive cloud

cover and surface dewpoints now in the 50s to lower 60s.  Many of

the 12z models are insistent that higher theta-e air will return to

this region, resulting in a robust severe threat emerging by late

afternoon - but our confidence in that scenario is rather low at

this time.  Redevelopment of afternoon thunderstorms over eastern OK

seems likely, and there remains a risk of hail, damaging winds, and

a tornado or two from this activity.  Storms that form will spread

eastward into AR and southern MO during the evening.



$$