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ACUS03 KWNS 290731

SWODY3

SPC AC 290730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the

central and southern Plains on Wednesday. A few tornadoes will be

possible (including potential for a strong tornado), in addition to

large to very large hail and damaging winds.



...Synopsis...

In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving toward the upper

Great Lakes, a broad upper trough is forecast to move slowly

eastward toward the central CONUS on Wednesday. A surface low is

forecast to deepen across the south-central High Plains, with rich

low-level moisture expected to stream northward across the warm

sector. A dryline will extend south of the low during the afternoon,

while a warm front will move northward toward the KS/NE border.

Farther south, a secondary mid/upper-level jet maximum may

overspread parts of west/southwest TX. 



...Parts of the central/southern Plains...

A favorable conditional environment for severe thunderstorms will

likely develop across parts of the warm sector on Wednesday, and

supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Storm

coverage and evolution remain uncertain, however.



Steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich low-level moisture (with

dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 F) will support strong

destabilization along/east of the dryline and south of the warm

front by Wednesday afternoon. Mid/upper-level flow will remain

relatively modest across most of the warm sector, but veering wind

profiles will support effective shear generally above 40 kt,

sufficient for supercell development in the presence of strong

instability. 



The primary uncertainty is the coverage and location of storm

diurnal storm development, with only subtle vorticity maxima

expected to overspread the warm sector. However, at least isolated

storm development will be possible near the dryline, with increasing

storm coverage expected near the warm front by afternoon/evening.

Any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large hail and

tornadoes, with a strong tornado possible as the low-level jet

increases into the evening. MCS development will also be possible

Wednesday evening near/north of the warm front, aided by a strong

low-level jet. 



Farther south, the subtle subtropical shortwave trough could support

a secondary maximum of storm coverage from southwest into central

TX, though this scenario is more uncertain. The Marginal Risk has

been expanded across much of TX, with some potential for initial

isolated supercells to evolve into one or more storm clusters into

Wednesday evening as they move eastward.



..Dean.. 04/29/2024



$$