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ACUS48 KWNS 290845

SWOD48

SPC AC 290844



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0344 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024



Valid 021200Z - 071200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...D4/Thursday - Southern Plains into the mid/upper Mississippi

Valley...

Extensive convection appears likely from the southern Plains

northeastward into the mid/upper MS Valley on Thursday, as a

relatively deep upper trough continues to impinge upon a broad and

moist warm sector. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient to support

organized convection, and pockets of severe potential are likely to

evolve within this regime. However, most guidance suggests that one

or more MCSs will be ongoing Thursday morning, with widespread

cloudiness and precipitation possible across much of the warm

sector. Storm redevelopment will be possible as a cold front moves

into the region, but magnitude of instability and potential

influence of convective outflow remain too uncertain to delineate a

15% area.  



...D5/Friday into D8/Monday...

Predictability regarding the synoptic pattern wanes rather quickly

by the weekend. In general, a cold front is expected to move

southeastward on D5/Friday and then stall from the southern Plains

into the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture will support daily

destabilization along/south of the front. However, potential for

either storm development across TX or for moisture/instability to be

drawn northward into a larger portion of the Plains remains quite

uncertain into early next week.



..Dean.. 04/29/2024