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ACUS01 KWNS 291254

SWODY1

SPC AC 291252



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0752 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024



Valid 291300Z - 301200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE

AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST

LOWER MI...



...SUMMARY...

Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across

south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower

Michigan.



...Lower MS Valley/Gulf coast today...

A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest TX/western OK will

progress eastward to the lower MS Valley by early tonight.  This

wave is preceded by a large MCS now over southern LA and the

adjacent northwest Gulf of Mexico.  Outflow with this convection

will continue moving southeastward through day, with some additional

storm development possible into southeast LA/southern MS on the

eastern flank of the MCS today.  Surface heating in cloud breaks,

lingering midlevel lapse rates at or above 7 C/km, and

boundary-layer dewpoints of 68-72 F will contribute to moderate

buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts along the leading

edge of the MCS.  Vertical shear will not be particularly strong,

but the stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated

downburst wind damage through this afternoon.



Farther north, the residual effects of prior and ongoing convection

will be reduced lapse rates and low-level moisture, which along with

lingering clouds will tend to limit buoyancy.  Thunderstorm

development will be still be possible this afternoon/evening from AR

into western TN/KY along and in advance of a weak surface front and

the midlevel trough approaching from OK.  However, severe storms are

not expected as a result of both weak buoyancy and relatively weak

vertical shear.



...South TX this afternoon...

A weak front will drift southward into south TX by this afternoon,

providing a potential focus for isolated thunderstorm development. 

Rich moisture, steep midlevel lapse rates and modest deep-layer

vertical shear (straight hodographs) could support isolated large

hail/wind damage if storms do form.  



...Lower MI this afternoon...

A midlevel trough will continue northeastward from the upper MS

Valley to the upper Great Lakes, while an associated/weak surface

cyclone and cold front move across WI/MI this afternoon through

tonight.  Southeast Lower MI will be located within the warm sector

and could have an opportunity for some surface heating/

destabilization just east of the weakening rain band from IN into

western Lower MI.  MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse

rates and 50 kt midlevel flow support a low-end threat for wind

damage this afternoon.



..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/29/2024



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