####018002154#### ACUS01 KWNS 291615 SWODY1 SPC AC 291613 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...SOUTH TX...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower Michigan. ...LA/MS/AL... A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore. The leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the east. Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward southwest AL this evening. Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind fields. This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather isolated. ...Southeast Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light precipitation approaching from the southwest. Several morning CAM solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of this cloud deck. Storms will sweep across the area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area. ...South TX... A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across south TX, ahead of a weak front. The coverage of thunderstorms is expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/29/2024 $$