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ACUS01 KWNS 291953

SWODY1

SPC AC 291952



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0252 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024



Valid 292000Z - 301200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER

MS VALLEY...SOUTH TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MI...



...SUMMARY...

Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across

south Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Lower

Michigan.



...20Z Update...

Overall forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Only adjustment to the

previous outlook was to trim behind the line in southern MS.



Ongoing line across southwest IN will likely continue

eastward/northeastward. Widespread clouds have limited heating

downstream across IN and OH, which has limited buoyancy as well.

This limited buoyancy should temper the overall severe potential,

although a damaging gust or two is possible if storms briefly

intensify.



..Mosier.. 04/29/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/



...LA/MS/AL...

A decaying linear MCS is moving slowly southeastward across southern

LA, with the most active part of the line well offshore.  The

leading outflow boundary extends northward across southeast LA into

central MS, with a warm/moist low-level air mass in place to the

east.  Some rejuvenation of thunderstorms along this line is

expected this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward toward

southwest AL this evening.  Mid-level lapse rates are weak in this

area, along with weak to moderately strong low to mid-level wind

fields.  This suggests some risk of gusty or possibly damaging winds

with these storms, but the threat is expected to remain rather

isolated.



...Southeast Lower MI...

Visible satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over

southeast Lower MI today, but with a broad area of clouds and light

precipitation approaching from the southwest.  Several morning CAM

solutions show scattered afternoon thunderstorms developing along

the leading edge of this cloud deck.  Storms will sweep across the

area rather quickly, with steepening low-level lapse rates posing a

risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. 

An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out as well - especially along a

surface boundary that extends across the Thumb area.



...South TX...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across

south TX, ahead of a weak front.  The coverage of thunderstorms is

expected to be quite limited today in this region, but any storm

that forms could pose a risk of large hail for a few hours.



$$