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ACUS03 KWNS 300728

SWODY3

SPC AC 300727



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0227 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF

THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday from

parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.



...Synopsis...

On Thursday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move across the

northern Plains during the day, and across the upper MS Valley into

Friday morning, becoming negatively tilted. Meanwhile, the primary

surface low is expected to move from eastern NE across IA and into

WI, with a secondary trough extending northwestward across MN and

ND. Extending south of the low, a cold front will stretch from IA

into OK during the afternoon, with a plume of low to mid 60s F

dewpoints ahead of the front. Southwesterly winds of 40+ kt at 850

will aid warming and destabilization across IA and northern IL

during the day as a warm front lifts north.  To the south, a dryline

will remain over west-central Texas, with a very moist and unstable

air mass to the east.



...Upper MS Valley into KS/MO...

Substantial/ongoing rain and thunderstorms are expected Thursday

morning from the front/outflow near the NE/IA border northeastward

along and north of the warm front across IA, southern MN and WI.

Predictability in terms of placement is low, but any ongoing MCS may

be capable of strong to locally severe gusts, and marginal hail

cannot be ruled out north of the warm front with 1000+ MUCAPE.

Additional storms may develop southward along the front into KS and

MO during the day with the help of heating. However, the ejecting

wave to the north will tend to limit large-scale support with

southward extent. Still, areas of gusty winds or marginal hail will

be possible. 



...OK into TX...

Heating along the dryline, and perhaps ahead of the sagging cold

front, will likely yield scattered daytime storms, though shear will

be relatively weak over OK. Stronger high-level winds will exist

over TX beneath the southern-stream jet extending northeastward out

of Mexico, and this may favor a few storms with large hail along the

dryline in TX. Cool midlevel temperatures and straight hodographs

will also favor hail. A small/targeted Slight Risk could be added

for parts of the TX dryline in later outlooks as predictability

increases.



..Jewell.. 04/30/2024



$$