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ACUS02 KWNS 010551

SWODY2

SPC AC 010549



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1249 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF

THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST

TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday from

parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.



...Synopsis...

On Thursday morning, a shortwave trough will be located over the

northern High Plains, with a leading 70+ kt 500 mb speed max over NE

and SD. This wave will move toward the upper MS Valley in

negative-tilt fashion, deepening all the while. To the south,

relatively weak midlevel flow will exist from the Southwest into the

southern Plains, but a high-level jet will extend from Mexico into

TX. A midlevel wave will also exist over central and eastern TX

early, with associated heavy rains forecast per WPC outlooks.



At the surface, low pressure is forecast to be located near

northwest MO, with a trough extending into northwest TX early in the

day. The primary surface low will move northeastward across IA and

into WI late in the day, while the southern extension of the

trough/wind shift makes slow southward progress across OK and

northern TX.



A warm front will lift north across IA and IL ahead of the low, with

at least low 60s F dewpoints into eastern IA and northern IL by

afternoon. While a southwesterly low-level jet will aid theta-e

advection early, wind fields around 850 mb will generally weaken as

the upper trough continues northeastward.



...Mid MO Valley into the Upper MS Valley...

Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the cold front from

southeast NE into northeast KS, and across much of IA where a 50+ kt

low-level jet will enhance lift and theta-e advection. Behind this

initial activity, areas of heating will lead to a diurnal increase

in storms from IA into MO near the cold front and/or near residual

outflows. Shear will decrease over time as the shortwave trough

lifts north; however, low-level shear near the warm front may still

favor a low-end tornado risk during the afternoon. Otherwise,

localized strong gusts or marginal hail may occur with storms along

the cold front.



...Central and Western OK into northern TX...

Heating will occur ahead of the sagging boundary and along a

dryline, where 60s F dewpoints will remain in place. Forecast

soundings indicate moderate instability will develop, with over 2000

J/kg MUCAPE expected. However, midlevel lapse rates will not be

particularly steep, owing to possible midlevel subsidence behind the

east TX wave. Still, strong heating will lead to an uncapped air

mass, and sufficient convergence near the boundaries should lead to

at least isolated strong to severe storms. Locally strong downbursts

or hail may occur with slow-moving, southeastward-propagating storms

or small clusters.



..Jewell.. 05/01/2024



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