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ACUS03 KWNS 010729

SWODY3

SPC AC 010728



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0228 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into

Saturday morning over parts of the central Plains.



...Synopsis...

On Friday, a shortwave trough will quickly exit the upper MS Valley

and move into Ontario, as a secondary wave moves east into the

northern High Plains. To the south, moderate high-level winds will

persist from Mexico into TX.



At the surface, high pressure will move across the central and

northern Plains and into the upper and middle MS Valley behind the

ejecting shortwave trough, leaving a boundary roughly from the OH

Valley into the southern Plains during the day. South of this

boundary, a moist air mass will remain.



Another cold front will move into the central Plains late in the day

and overnight, in association with the High Plains shortwave trough.

This front will eventually interact with low-level moisture as

southerly winds increase late across the Plains in response to the

upper wave.



...Central/Southern Plains...

Strong heating will occur from western into central TX, generally

west of the more robust low-level moisture which will gradually move

westward due to easterly winds, then mix out. Little convergence

will exist to support storm development, although the air mass will

become uncapped and unstable. As such, isolated strong storms cannot

be ruled out during the peak heating hours over northwest TX, and

perhaps into the TX Panhandle or western OK as the front lifts north

late.



A greater probability of storms will occur along the cold front

overnight as it intercepts the unstable air mass from eastern CO

across KS and into northwest OK by 12Z Saturday. Modest 25-35 kt

westerlies at 500 mb along with 30+ kt southerly winds at 850 mb may

support a linear MCS, with areas of damaging wind gusts and hail.

Given uncertainties, a 5% risk area is prudent.



..Jewell.. 05/01/2024



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