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ACUS48 KWNS 010905

SWOD48

SPC AC 010903



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024



Valid 041200Z - 091200Z



...DISCUSSION...

For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous

thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from

the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F

dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly

surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow

will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western

upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall

severe potential through Sunday/D5.



For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in

depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and

emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place

ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains

with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry

differences exist amongst the models, the combination of

strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample

moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe

probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of

severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells,

squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.



..Jewell.. 05/01/2024