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ACUS02 KWNS 011732

SWODY2

SPC AC 011730



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1230 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OK

INTO NORTHWEST TX...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible on Thursday from

parts of the upper Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains.



...Synopsis...

A relatively deep upper-level trough will persist over the

western/central CONUS on Thursday. Within the broader cyclonic flow,

multiple embedded shortwaves will move east-northeastward, both

within the main belt of flow across the central Plains into the

upper Great Lakes, and also within a southern stream across TX. The

surface pattern will be complicated by widespread overnight into

morning convection, but in general, a cold front is forecast to be

aligned from southwest TX toward parts of the Midwest. One surface

wave may move from the central Plains into the upper Great Lakes

region, while another weak surface low may persist across west TX. 



While a rather broad and moist warm sector will support pockets of

severe potential on Thursday, uncertainty remains high due to

multiple rounds of extensive antecedent convection across the Great

Plains region.  



...Southern Great Plains into the lower MS Valley...

An MCS may be ongoing over east/southeast TX Thursday morning. Some

severe potential may accompany this system near the upper TX to LA

Gulf Coast, and perhaps as far east as the lower MS Valley.



In the wake of the morning MCS, an outflow boundary may extend

across into parts of central/north TX, while the cold front to the

north is forecast to gradually weaken as it moves southeastward

across parts of OK into northwest TX. A dryline is forecast to

extend into southwest TX. Depending on the magnitude of diurnal

heating and outflow modification, isolated to widely scattered storm

development will be possible near all of these boundaries during the

afternoon/evening. Modest west-southwesterly flow aloft will support

sufficient effective shear for some storm organization, especially

where low-level flow remains backed. 



Steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong

destabilization wherever stronger heating can occur. Isolated

supercell development will be possible initially, with a threat of

large hail (potentially greater than 2 inches in diameter) and

possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage,

modest upscale growth will be possible, with an attendant threat of

at least isolated damaging gusts. 



A Slight Risk has been added from southwest OK into northwest TX,

where the best potential for strong diurnal destabilization is

currently expected, though uncertainty remains regarding storm

coverage in this area.  



...Parts of MO into the upper MS Valley...

Uncertainty is high in this region as well, with some potential for

an MCS to be ongoing across parts of IA/MO/northwest IL during the

morning. An isolated damaging wind risk could accompany this system

in the morning, with some potential for redevelopment in its wake as

a weak surface wave moves toward the upper Great Lakes region.

Destabilization may be limited in the wake of morning convection,

but sufficient deep-layer shear and a moderate low-level jet will

support some potential for organized convection, and a couple

stronger cells/clusters could develop during the afternoon. While a

Marginal Risk has been maintained across this region, a corridor of

somewhat greater severe potential could evolve Thursday afternoon,

depending on the evolution of morning convection and recovery in its

wake.



..Dean.. 05/01/2024



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