####018004559####
ACUS01 KWNS 012016

SWODY1

SPC AC 012014



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0314 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024



Valid 012000Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON 

AND EVENING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA/WEST

TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

The greatest threat today for large to very large hail, severe

thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will be in from south-central

Kansas into western Oklahoma, the eastern Texas Panhandle and

northwest/west-central Texas.



...20Z Update...

Severe probabilities have been expanded westward somewhat to account

for a farther west position of the dryline this afternoon.

Significant wind probabilities have also been added across parts of

west/northwest TX, where a mix of supercell clusters and eventual

MCS development will be possible. 



The influence of extensive antecedent convection remains quite

evident across parts of KS/OK, with the richest moisture currently

confined from far western OK into the eastern TX Panhandle and

northwest TX, and pockets of somewhat higher dewpoints from

southeast KS into northeast OK, and also across southwestern KS,

where somewhat stronger recovery is occurring this afternoon. 



Confidence remains rather low regarding storm coverage and evolution

along the dryline, though at least isolated supercell development

will be possible late this afternoon into the evening, with a threat

of all severe hazards. 



Upscale growth into one or more clusters still appears likely across

central and possibly north TX tonight, with some potential for an

organized MCS to move into southeast TX before the end of the

period. An elevated storm cluster and possible MCS is also expected

to develop near the KS/NE border later tonight. While this

convection will likely remain mostly elevated, rather strong MUCAPE

will support at least an isolated threat for both hail and severe

gusts. See the previous discussion below for more information, and

MCD 589 for more information regarding the short-term threat from

southwest KS into the TX Panhandle. .



..Dean.. 05/01/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024/



...Southern KS/Western OK/TX Panhandle...

Late morning surface analysis shows a low near Guymon OK, with a

remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms extending southward

through the eastern TX Panhandle and across southern OK.  It is

unclear whether this boundary will wash out through the afternoon,

or be maintained by shower/thunderstorm activity over southwest OK. 

Regardless, thunderstorms will form rapidly on the dryline from

southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle late this afternoon and

interact with the remnant boundary.  Supercells capable of very

large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are possible along this

corridor through the early evening.  There is a chance of a strong

tornado or two, but confidence in position is not high enough to

increase tornado probabilities at this time.



...West TX...

Strong heating will occur today west of the dryline over west TX,

leading to scattered intense storm development.  Initial discrete

supercells will pose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes,

but organized outflows appear likely given latest model guidance,

which will promote damaging wind gusts as storms spread eastward

through the evening.



...Central TX today and tonight...

A very moist low-level air mass is in place today over south-central

TX, with dewpoints well into the 70s.  Scattered afternoon

thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, where

sufficient CAPE and deep-layer shear will promote

organized/supercell structures.  Given the abundant low-level

theta-e and veering low-level wind fields, a tornado or two is

possible, along with locally gusty/damaging winds.  



Tonight, storms that form over west TX may organize into an MCS and

track into central TX.  A strengthening sub-tropical mid-level wind

max will help to sustain the activity, with a continued risk of

damaging winds overnight.



...Southern NE/Northern KS tonight...

Relatively widespread thunderstorms are expected to form after dark

over southwest NE/northwest KS ahead of an approaching shortwave

trough.  This activity will spread eastward overnight, with

sufficient (mainly) elevated CAPE to support hail and gusty winds in

the stronger cores.



$$