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ACUS02 KWNS 020527

SWODY2

SPC AC 020526



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1226 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE

CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS LATE...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late Friday into

Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Plains.



...Synopsis...

As an initial shortwave trough moves across the upper Great Lakes

and into Ontario, a secondary wave will move across the northern

Plains, with modest 30 kt 500 mb flow into the central Plains.

Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will also remain over the

region, with -12 C at 500 mb well south into TX.



Behind the exiting Great Lakes trough, high pressure will exist over

the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with a front roughly from

Lower MI into northwest TX early Friday. This boundary will return

north as a warm front by afternoon, with 60s F dewpoints back into

KS, OK, and northwest TX during the evening.  A cold front will push

southward into central NE and eastern CO by 00Z, and will continue

across KS and into the TX Panhandle overnight. 



Elsewhere, a southern-stream jet and low-amplitude trough will move

across TX and into the lower MS Valley during the day, interacting

with robust moisture and leading to numerous storms from eastern TX

into MS. These should be largely non-severe, as lapse rates and

shear will be weak.



...Central Plains into the TX Panhandle Late...

As the cold front intercepts the moistening boundary layer and 30-40

kt southeasterly 850 mb winds, a line of storms is expected to form

and push southward overnight. Steep lapse rates aloft will

counteract a bit of boundary layer stability, and combine with

frontal ascent to support areas of strong to severe gusts. Veering

winds with height should aid southeastward storm propagation and

continued outflow production, though hail may occur from time to

time with the stronger updrafts.



...TX South Plains/Northwest TX during the afternoon/evening...

Indications are that storms will be ongoing over much of eastern TX

into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, with possible outflows

across parts of central or northern TX. Strong heating will occur

over western TX, which will likely lead to a ribbon of stronger

instability. As such, isolated severe storms with large hail risk

cannot be ruled out in this area close to 00Z, coincident with peak

heating.



..Jewell.. 05/02/2024



$$