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ACUS01 KWNS 020600

SWODY1

SPC AC 020559



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1259 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN

NORTH TEXAS VICINITY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today from

parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains.



...Synopsis...

Broad west-southwesterly flow aloft is forecast from the southwest

to the Great Lakes, south and east of a low moving

east-northeastward in the vicinity of the U.S./Canadian border.  As

this occurs, a weak cold front will cross the central U.S., reaching

a position from the Upper Great Lakes to central Texas by the end of

the period.



...Western North Texas vicinity...

Ongoing/weakening convection should be crossing eastern

Oklahoma/north Texas at the start of the period, with some

ramifications for subsequent destabilization potential ahead of the

advancing cold front -- particularly across Oklahoma.



With that said, ample destabilization is forecast to occur from the

southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas region southward, to

support new convective initiation by late afternoon.  A

likely/favored location for initial updrafts will likely be near the

cold front/dryline intersection, forecast in the vicinity of

southwestern Oklahoma/eastern portions of the Texas South Plains/the

Big Country region.  Initial/cellular convection will pose a risk

for very large hail, along with locally damaging gusts and possibly

a tornado or two, though limited to some degree by rather modest

shear.



With time, upscale growth may occur, with some models hinting that a

bowing MCS may shift eastward across North Texas through the

evening.  Some eastward expansion of the SLGT risk area is being

included in light of this model signal, though the aforementioned

lack of more robust flow suggests severe risk will remain somewhat

isolated.



...Upper Midwest/southern Upper Great Lakes to eastern Kansas...

A weakening band of convection is forecast to be crossing

Iowa/northwestern Missouri/eastern Kansas at the start of the

period, in advance of the surface cold front.  Sporadic gusty winds

and marginal hail may occur with a couple of the lingering/stronger

storms.  Later, weak heating/modest destabilization within the warm

sector should support renewed convection near the advancing front

during the afternoon.  With stronger flow confined to the cool side

of the front, and limited instability, any occurrences of wind

and/or hail reaching severe levels should remain largely isolated,

with risk diminishing by evening.



...Southeastern Texas/southwestern Louisiana...

Indications are that an organized/potentially bowing MCS may be

moving east-southeastward across southeastern Texas at the start of

the period.  Prior to moving offshore, strong/locally severe wind

gusts will be possible during the first couple of hours of the

period.



..Goss.. 05/02/2024



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