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ACUS03 KWNS 020656

SWODY3

SPC AC 020656



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0156 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF

WESTERN TEXAS INTO FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered storms, some possibly severe, will be possible over parts

of the southern High Plains.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

On Saturday, a very deep upper low will move into the Great Basin,

with a large area of strong cyclonic flow aloft over much of the

western CONUS. Preceding this system will be a lead southern-stream

wave, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern Plains

after 00Z.



To the north, a shortwave trough will gradually lift across the

upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, with a weak surface high building

south across the Plains behind a cold front. This front will lie

roughly from IL into northern TX by 00Z, with southern portions of

the boundary stalling. A moist and unstable air mass will remain to

the south, primarily over TX, but low-level moisture will also

spread into eastern NM.



While ongoing storms are likely along the front early in the day,

heating and destabilization ahead of it will favor diurnal strong to

possibly severe storms, producing localized hail or strong gusts.

Even if the storms become elevated, steep lapse rates aloft will

still favor vigorous updrafts. With time, storms could become quite

numerous with an easterly low-level jet developing, aiding theta-e

advection toward the frontal zone.



..Jewell.. 05/02/2024



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