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ACUS01 KWNS 021606

SWODY1

SPC AC 021605



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 021630Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON

AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of

the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains.  The greatest potential

appears to be over parts of northwest into central Texas.



...TX...

Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across

the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending

southward across west TX.  Ample low-level moisture is present to

the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon

heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE

values around 4000 J/kg.  Deep layer flow is not particularly

strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the

setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of

very large hail and damaging winds.  Have upped hail probabilities

in parts of this region.  The cluster of storms may grow upscale

after dark, building southeastward into central TX.



...OK into Western Great Lakes...

A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA.  A large shield of

prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and

eastern IA.  Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of

strong heating will occur this afternoon.  Most CAM solutions

suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this

differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells

capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail.  Confidence in a more

organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this

time.



..Hart/Barnes/Lyons.. 05/02/2024



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