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ACUS02 KWNS 021732

SWODY2

SPC AC 021730



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1230 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE

TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TX AND THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon

into early Saturday morning over parts of the central/southern Great

Plains.



...Synopsis...

As one shortwave trough moves from the upper Great Lakes into

Ontario, a trailing shortwave will move from the central Rockies

into the central/northern Great Plains. A cold front associated with

the trailing shortwave will move southeastward across parts of

NE/KS, as a weak surface wave from eastern CO toward the lower MO

Valley by Friday night into Saturday morning. Farther south, a belt

of modest midlevel southwesterly flow will remain in place across

TX/OK.



...TX South Plains into the Concho Valley vicinity...

In the wake of extensive convection on D1/Thursday, rich low-level

moisture may be transported somewhat farther west compared to

previous days, along/south of an outflow boundary that may tend to

move slowly northward through the day. Moderate to strong buoyancy

and modest but sufficient deep-layer shear will again support

isolated to widely scattered supercell development during the

afternoon/evening. Very large hail will likely be the primary

hazard, though isolated severe gusts will also be possible. While

low-level shear will not be particularly strong, a tornado or two

cannot be ruled out near the outflow boundary, especially if

sufficient modification occurs north of the boundary during the

afternoon.



...Central Great Plains into the OK/TX Panhandles...

In the wake of a midweek frontal passage, the opportunity for

moisture return will be relatively limited across parts of the

central Plains, in advance of the approaching front. However,

relatively cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates

will support MLCAPE potentially approaching 1000 J/kg by peak

heating. Residual capping may tend to prevent initiation until the

cold front moves into the region by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear

will support organized convection, and a few stronger cells/clusters

could support a threat of isolated hail and severe gusts. Upscale

growth into a larger QLCS will be possible as convection moves

east-southeastward, with some potential for isolated severe gusts

and hail continuing overnight. Lingering uncertainty regarding

buoyancy with northward extent precludes higher probabilities at

this time.



..Dean.. 05/02/2024



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