####018002919####
ACUS01 KWNS 022007

SWODY1

SPC AC 022005



Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0305 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 022000Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

NORTHWEST TX...



CORRECTED FOR WIND PROBABILITY LINE IN LOUISIANA



...SUMMARY...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon

into tonight from parts of the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains.

 The greatest potential appears to be over parts of northwest into

central Texas.



...20Z Update...

The primary change at 20Z is to remove the Marginal Risk from parts

of southeast TX, in the wake of a weakening MCS near the LA Gulf

Coast. Some additional development remains possible into southeast

LA within a warm and very moist environment, but any remaining

severe threat is expected to be isolated. 



Otherwise, no major changes have been made to the categorical areas.

The 2% tornado area has been extended northeastward through MO into

IL, given the presence of discrete convection within this corridor

and an earlier tornado report near Joplin. 



Isolated to widely scattered supercell development is still expected

near the northwest TX vicinity, with a threat of very large hail and

possibly a tornado or two. See the previous discussion below for

more information, and MCD 604 and MCD 605 for more information

regarding the short-term threats from TX into the MS Valley.



..Dean.. 05/02/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Thu May 02 2024/



...TX...

Morning surface analysis shows a cold front sagging southward across

the TX Panhandle and northwest OK, with a dryline extending

southward across west TX.  Ample low-level moisture is present to

the east of the dryline, where a combination of strong afternoon

heating and very steep mid-level lapse rates will yield MLCAPE

values around 4000 J/kg.  Deep layer flow is not particularly

strong, but given the impressive thermodynamic environment, the

setup should support scattered slow-moving supercells capable of

very large hail and damaging winds.  Have upped hail probabilities

in parts of this region.  The cluster of storms may grow upscale

after dark, building southeastward into central TX.



...OK into Western Great Lakes...

A cold front extends from northwest OK into IA.  A large shield of

prefrontal precipitation is affecting parts of northern MO and

eastern IA.  Along and south of the front/cloud shield, areas of

strong heating will occur this afternoon.  Most CAM solutions

suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms will form in this

differential heating zone, with a risk of a few strong/severe cells

capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail.  Confidence in a more

organized severe threat is not sufficient to add a SLGT risk at this

time.



$$