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ACUS01 KWNS 030106

SWODY1

SPC AC 030104



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0804 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024



Valid 030100Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN

NORTH TEXAS/THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTH TO THE CONCHO VALLEY AREA...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered to isolated severe storms will continue this

evening, primarily from western North Texas into the Concho

Valley/central Texas area.



...Parts of northern and central Texas...

While isolated strong storms -- a few possibly/occasionally reaching

severe levels -- remain possible from Oklahoma northeastward to the

southern Upper Great Lakes region in the vicinity of the cold

frontal zone, the greatest severe risk will remain across portions

of northern and central Texas.



A handful of severe/supercell storms are ongoing from western North

Texas south to the Concho Valley, with a warm sector bounded by a

cold front on the northern fringe, and a dryline on the west.  While

noted veering of the flow with height exists across this area,

magnitude of the flow remains somewhat limited.  Still, given the

strongly unstable airmass (mixed-layer CAPE near 3500 J/kg), the

CAPE/shear combination will continue to favor organized/supercell

storms over the next few hours.  Eventually, some upscale growth of

convection may occur, though an only modest low-level jet expected

to evolve this evening may preclude development of a well-organized

MCS.  In the meantime, very large hail and locally damaging wind

gusts remain possible, along with a tornado or two.



..Goss.. 05/03/2024



$$