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ACUS02 KWNS 030602

SWODY2

SPC AC 030600



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail,

damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across

parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader

portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi

Valley, and Midwest.



...Synopsis...

A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western

states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance

quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day.

A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the

same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this

low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A

subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across

northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday

afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support

isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the

southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening.



...Southern High Plains...

A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and

north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending

southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should

eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal

heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse

rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across

west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely

along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although

low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a

favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height

through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.

Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become

supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional

severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat

should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest

0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes

appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent

supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk

has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM

where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring.



...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains...

A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at

the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the

cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal

minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with

this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual

redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS

Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of

the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears

marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But,

some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for

damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the

Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday

evening with the loss of daytime heating.



There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX

to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as

the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas.

With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold

front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for

isolated severe hail and gusty winds.



..Gleason.. 05/03/2024



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