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ACUS03 KWNS 030731

SWODY3

SPC AC 030730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday

across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex.



...Synopsis...

A strong upper trough/low over the western CONUS is expected to

advance eastward towards the northern/central Rockies on Sunday

while evolving into a negatively tilted open wave. A weak

southern-stream upper trough should continue to move across the

southern Plains into the lower MS Valley through the day. At the

surface, lee cyclogenesis will occur through the period over the

northern/central High Plains as large-scale ascent preceding the

upper trough overspreads this region. Rich low-level will return

northward over much of the Plains in response.



...Southern Plains to the ArkLaTex...

Multiple rounds of convection will likely have occurred across much

of the southern Plains prior to the start of the Day 3 period Sunday

morning. It appears possible that one or more thunderstorm clusters

may be ongoing Sunday morning over parts of OK/TX in association

with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern Plains. Some

regeneration/strengthening of convection may occur on the eastern

fringes of this morning activity as gradual destabilization occurs

with filtered daytime heating, with an isolated threat for mainly

damaging winds across the ArkLaTex and vicinity. In the wake of the

shortwave trough passage, the airmass across much of the southern

Plains may tend to remain capped. One exception may be along

trailing outflow from the morning thunderstorms. If convection can

initiate, a moderately to strongly unstable airmass across

central/north TX, along with sufficient deep-layer shear, would

support robust thunderstorms with some hail/wind threat. Still,

large-scale forcing appears nebulous at best across this region, and

overall convective coverage across OK/TX remains rather uncertain.

Have therefore included a fairly broad Marginal Risk to account for

this somewhat conditional/unfocused severe potential.



..Gleason.. 05/03/2024



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