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ACUS01 KWNS 031638

SWODY1

SPC AC 031637



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024



Valid 031630Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR

WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible over

parts of west-central Texas this afternoon and evening.



...Southern Great Plains...

Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very

moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual

effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South

Plains into central TX.  Near and south of the boundary, low-level

moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several

raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large

moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon.  A

north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating

zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development

later this afternoon/evening.  Insolation through peak heating will

contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg

MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area.  The nose of a westerly

250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this

afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs.  Expecting heating

and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface

boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon.  Widely

scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the

early evening according to the latest model guidance.  Large to

giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and

severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending

southeastward into portions of the Big Country.  Depending on

storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level

wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty

at these scales precludes a delineated risk area.  Some upscale

growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this

evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late.



...Central Plains...

No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk

area across the central Plains.  Though nowhere nearly as moist as

the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist

advection should support a secondary relative max in severe

potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of

eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE.  Convection

should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence

maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened

by favorable diurnal heating.  Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low

50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates,

500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. 

Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for

organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and

initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. 

Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with

time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust

potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the

Missouri Valley region.



..Smith/Barnes/Squitieri.. 05/03/2024



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