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ACUS01 KWNS 040054

SWODY1

SPC AC 040052



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0752 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024



Valid 040100Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the

central and southern Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are the

primary risks.



...01z Outlook...



Cool mid-level profiles, and steep lapse rates contributed to the

evolution of supercell clusters over much of northwest TX into the

Edwards Plateau region. This activity is beginning to overturn much

of the buoyancy across northwest TX, hence the strongest updrafts

are now propagating southeast across the Edwards Plateau along an

instability axis characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg.

Additionally, strong convection has developed just west of the

international border and is approaching Eagle Pass. Will adjust

severe probabilities into the middle Rio Grande Valley to account

for this activity spreading east of the River.



Farther north, organized band of thunderstorms has developed along a

cold front that is surging southeast across south-central

NE-northwest KS-northeast CO. In addition to a few dryline

supercells over western KS, this complex will continue to propagate

southeast aided in large part to the surging cold front. Given the

organization of this activity, and momentum, will extend higher

severe probs a bit downstream to account for wind/hail threat with

this squall line.



..Darrow.. 05/04/2024



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