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ACUS02 KWNS 311727

SWODY2

SPC AC 311725



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1225 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024



Valid 011200Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL

OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the

southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a

small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very-large hail, damaging

winds, and tornadoes are possible. The severe threat will peak

afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the greatest threat

for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the evening/overnight period.



...Synopsis...

A rather broad, positively tilted upper trough will be positioned

within the Four Corners region. A mid-level jet streak will move

northeastward through the Trans-Pecos and into Red River region by

early evening. This feature is forecast to be weakening during the

afternoon as it shifts northeast. As the mid-level jet moves into

the Midwest during the evening, a short-wave trough is expected to

intensify in the Upper Midwest, with mid-level winds increasing

across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a modest surface mass

response is anticipated in the southern Plains. Guidance generally

depicts a modest surface low developing in western/central Oklahoma.

A dryline will be pendant from this feature and provide a focus for

convective development during the afternoon. This surface low will

track northeastward along with its parent upper trough along nearly

stationary boundary from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley and

Mid-Atlantic. Some deepening of this low may occur very late in the

period as the upper wave intensifies.



...Southern High Plains...

As the upper-level trough ejects into the region, sufficient

moisture for high-based convection should exist in the Texas

Panhandle and parts of the South Plains. A few convectively enhanced

gusts may occur with this activity. Buoyancy should remain too

limited for more than small hail.



...Oklahoma/Texas...

Between cloud cover and a capping inversion aloft, storm development

along the dryline should hold off until the mid/late afternoon when

greater mid-level ascent arrives. Strong deep-layer shear should

promote supercell storm structures at least initially. Hodographs

will be long and generally straight, but there are also veer-back

signatures that could indicate some potential for a messier storm

mode. Even so, potential for large to very-large hail is evident

given the shear and mid-level lapse rates.  The tornado risk should

be mitigated to some extent by the overall weak low-level shear.

That being said, supercells that can be maintained into the early

evening (00-03Z) will see a brief window of increased tornado

potential as the low-level jet modestly strengthens.



Farther south into central Texas, forcing will be a bit weaker and 

capping a touch stronger. Storms that do develop will likely have

supercellular characteristics. Large-hail and damaging winds are the

most likely hazards.



...Ozarks into Ohio Valley...

Some warm advection driven convection may be ongoing early in the

period across parts of these regions. These storms will likely be

elevated with a risk for large hail and isolated damaging winds. By

the afternoon, greater potential for surface-based storms will exist

from the triple point near the KS/OK border and along the cold front

in southeast Kansas into Missouri. These storms will at least

initially be supercells with potential for very-large hail. Storms

are expected to grow upscale with a greater risk of damaging winds.

While not overly strong, low-level shear should remain sufficient

for a threat of QLCS circulations/tornadoes.



It is possible that initially elevated storms may become near

surface based during the afternoon in the Ohio Valley. Additional

storms will likely move in from the west later in the evening

overnight as the shortwave trough/surface low move northeastward.

Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes would be possible with this

activity. The hail threat is a bit uncertain given the potential for

more linear storm modes. However, large hail will remain possible.



...Parts of Mid-Atlantic...

Overall storm coverage is uncertain given the generally neutral

mid-level height changes through the period. Some model solutions do

produce convection along the stationary surface boundary. Given 

strong mid-level winds and modestly steep lapse rates aloft,

marginally severe hail and isolated damaging winds could occur with

the stronger storms.



..Wendt.. 03/31/2024



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