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ACUS02 KWNS 010600

SWODY2

SPC AC 010558



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1258 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...



...SUMMARY...

A severe threat is expected on Tuesday from the Ohio and Tennessee

Valleys eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, and southward into the

central Gulf Coast states. Wind damage and isolated large hail will

be possible across a broad area. The tornado threat is expected to

be greatest from middle Tennessee north-northeastward into central

and northern Kentucky.



...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Central Gulf Coast States/Central

Appalachians...

An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the mid to

upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front advances

eastward toward the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. By afternoon, a

north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast

to be in place from the northern Gulf Coast States to central

Kentucky, where surface dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s

F. As instability increases along this corridor, numerous

thunderstorms will likely develop, with a linear MCS organizing and

moving eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the

afternoon and evening. This large MCS should reach the central

Appalachians by early to mid evening.



A 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet will likely move northeastward into

the Ohio Valley during the afternoon. This jet will create strong

deep-layer shear across most of the region. Forecast soundings by

21Z from middle Tennessee to central Kentucky have 0-6 km shear in

the 70 to 80 knot range. The wind shear and strong large-scale

ascent, associated with the mid-level jet, will be favorable for the

development of a squall line Tuesday afternoon. This linear MCS will

likely have numerous embedded severe storms with the greatest threat

being wind damage. The wind-damage threat is expected to maximize

during the late afternoon and early evening. QLCS tornadic

circulations will be possible along some parts of the line,

especially near bowing segments. An isolated large hail threat is

also expected in areas where the squall line interacts with locally

stronger instability, and with isolated rotating cells that develop

ahead of the line. The severe threat is expected to decrease during

the mid to late evening as the line moves through the central

Appalachians.



...Central Gulf Coast States...

An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains

on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the lower

Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints should be in the mid to upper

60s F ahead of the front, where some models suggest that MLCAPE will

peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range during the afternoon. Scattered

thunderstorm development appears likely to take place ahead of the

front early in the day, with an organized line segment or cluster

moving eastward across the central Gulf Coast States during the

afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear will be in place, and low-level

lapse rates will steepen during the late morning and early

afternoon. The environment will likely support a wind-damage and

isolated large-hail threat. An isolated tornado threat will also be

possible, especially in the northern Gulf Coast states near the

southern edge of the low-level jet. Large-scale ascent and

deep-layer shear are forecast to be somewhat weaker across the

central and southern Gulf Coast states, which should result in a

more isolated severe threat with southward extent.



...Mid-Atlantic...

An anticyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Eastern Seaboard

on Tuesday. At the surface, a relatively cold airmass is forecast

across much of the Mid-Atlantic due to cold air damming. Above the

cold surface air, elevated instability is forecast to increase

during the evening, as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves

through the central Appalachians. Thunderstorms that form in the

unstable air aloft, may have a potential for marginally severe hail

during the evening into the early overnight period.



..Broyles.. 04/01/2024



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