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ACUS01 KWNS 020045

SWODY1

SPC AC 020044



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024



Valid 020100Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or

greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes

(potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from

north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley.



...01z Update...



Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of

large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per

shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from

the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional

radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently

observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts

east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from

central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the

period.



Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of

the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and

along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor

exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor

robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong

shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may

yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is

spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of

strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north

TX into the lower OH Valley.



..Darrow.. 04/02/2024



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