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ACUS02 KWNS 020546

SWODY2

SPC AC 020544



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1244 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms, associated with wind damage and hail, will be

possible on Wednesday across parts of the eastern Carolinas and

Mid-Atlantic, with a second severe threat area expected over the

Florida Peninsula.



...Eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic...

A large upper-level low pressure system will move eastward into the

southern Great Lakes on Wednesday, as a cold front advances quickly

eastward through the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the

front, a moist airmass will likely be in place across the Carolinas

into southeastern Virginia, with surface dewpoints in the 60s F. As

surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass, weak instability

is expected to develop in most areas during the late morning and

early afternoon. While some convection is expected near the front

early in the period, new surface-based thunderstorms should develop

along and near the moist axis around midday. These storms will

likely move eastward across parts of Maryland, eastern Virginia and

eastern North Carolina. Forecast soundings during the afternoon

along and near the moist axis have extreme deep-layer shear, with

0-6 km shear actually reaching 90 to 100 knots by 21Z. As low-level

lapse rates steepen during the day, convection should be able to mix

the stronger flow down to the surface, creating a potential for wind

damage. The more intense cells could also be associated with an

isolated large hail threat, aided by cold temperatures aloft.



...Florida Peninsula...

Mid-level flow is forecast to be west-southwesterly across the Gulf

Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. A 100 to

120 knot mid-level jet is forecast to move into the western

Carolinas, as a cold front advances southward across the northern

Florida Peninsula. The entrance region of the mid-level jet is

forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday

afternoon, strengthening lift and shear across the Florida

Peninsula. As storms organize ahead of the front and move eastward

across the central Florida Peninsula, the strong deep-layer shear

may be enough to support a wind-damage threat with the more intense

cells embedded in the convective line. Any severe threat should be

the greatest during the mid to late afternoon, as low-level lapse

rates become the steepest. A marginal hail threat is also expected.



..Broyles.. 04/02/2024



$$