####018002226####
ACUS48 KWNS 030848

SWOD48

SPC AC 030847



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0347 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024



Valid 061200Z - 111200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...

The medium-range models continue to move an upper-level trough into

the Great Plains on Saturday/Day 4. Moisture advection will take

place ahead of the trough, with an axis of low-level moisture

setting up from north Texas to southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm

development is expected along this corridor from late Saturday

afternoon into the evening. Although instability is forecast to

remain weak, strong deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should

support a severe threat.



On Sunday/Day 5, the trough is forecast to move to the mid

Mississippi Valley, with a cold front advancing southeastward

through the Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will be most likely

Sunday afternoon near and ahead of the front across parts of the

lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A severe threat could develop, but

uncertainty is still considerable concerning the timing and position

of the front. 



...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...

The medium range models move an upper-level low into the Desert

Southwest on Monday/Day 6. A moist airmass is forecast to be in

place from the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered

thunderstorms, associated with a severe threat, could develop along

the north edge of the warm sector Monday evening, in part of the Red

River Valley. 



On Tuesday/Day 7, the models suggest that the moist airmass will

advect northward into the Ozarks. Strong to severe thundertorms

could again develop across the warm sector, as the upper-level

trough comes out into the Great Plains. The most likely area for a

severe threat remains uncertain.



On Wednesday/Day 8, the upper-level trough is forecast to move

through the central U.S., with a moist airmass in place across the

Southeast. Strong to potentially severe storms may occur across

parts of the moist airmass from the Southeast northward into the

Tennessee. However, considerable uncertainty exists at this range.



..Broyles.. 04/03/2024