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ACUS01 KWNS 031228

SWODY1

SPC AC 031226



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024



Valid 031300Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN

SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from

parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida.  Damaging gusts and an

isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards.



...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL...

Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over

southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east

into OH during the period.  Occluded low over southern Great Lakes

will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from

NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight.  A

cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of

the FL Peninsula.  



Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated

over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east

to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over

the southern Appalachians.  The airmass south and east of the front

in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today

despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape

Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs).  Strengthening and

gradually veering flow with height will support organized line

segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the

convective band.  A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be

possible with the stronger activity through midday.  As this

activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of

the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the

primary severe hazard of concern.  



Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned

deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the

Mid-Atlantic states.  Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC

this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance

northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast

during the day.  Model guidance indicates a band of scattered

thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and

move east towards the coast.  A few of the stronger storms will

potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments

with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats.  Farther south over

central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early

morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and

large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on

coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. 

Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for

this observational trend and forecast scenario.  



...Southwest OR into Central ID...

Mid-level moistening is anticipated across the region as upper

troughing approaches from the northwest. This moistening atop a

deeply mixed boundary will support modest buoyancy. Increasing

ascent will interact with this destabilizing air mass to support

thunderstorm development during the late afternoon. Deep-layer shear

should be strong enough to support updraft organization and

potentially a few supercells. These rotating updrafts may support

isolated hail, while high cloud bases support the potential for

strong outflow.



..Smith/Leitman.. 04/03/2024



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