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ACUS01 KWNS 031619

SWODY1

SPC AC 031617



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1117 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024



Valid 031630Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON

ACROSS EASTERN VA AND VICINITY...AND ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FL...



...SUMMARY...

Storms capable of producing a couple of tornadoes and damaging gusts

will be possible this afternoon across eastern Virginia and

vicinity, and across north and central Florida.



...Eastern VA/northern NC area this afternoon...

A deep midlevel low near southern Lake MI will drift southeastward

through early Thursday, while embedded speed maxima rotate

northeastward through the southeastern periphery of the midlevel low

(GA/north FL to VA).  Secondary surface cyclogenesis is expected

along a baroclinic zone across VA today, and this cyclone will move

just off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early tonight.  Along and

southeast of the cyclone track, a moistening warm sector is expected

from NC into VA, where destabilization will become sufficient for

additional thunderstorm development by midday.  The warm sector will

be characterized very strong deep-layer shear/long hodographs, and

sufficient low-level curvature/SRH for right-moving supercells

capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70

mph, and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter this

afternoon.



...North/central FL this afternoon...

A pre-frontal band of thunderstorms will continue to spread

southeastward through the afternoon from north toward central FL. 

50+ kt midlevel flow will be maintained through the afternoon as the

warm sector gradually destabilizes as temperatures warm into the

upper 70s/lower 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints near 70 F.  This

will maintain the storms through the afternoon, with the potential

for a few damaging gusts of 60-70 mph with embedded line segments,

and potentially a couple of tornadoes with embedded circulations

and/or supercells that form just ahead of the main line of storms. 

Storm intensity is expected to wane by this evening/tonight as the

storms move from central toward south FL.



...Southeast OR/ID this afternoon/evening...

A midlevel trough will continue to amplify/dig southward near the

Pacific Northwest coast.  East of the trough, a gradual increase in

midlevel flow from the southwest is expected through this evening,

as well as a gradual increase in ascent along the deep-layer

baroclinic zone from eastern OR into ID.  Surface heating/mixing and

modest low-midlevel moisture will contribute to inverted-V profiles

with weak buoyancy along the baroclinic zone, and sufficient

deep-layer vertical shear for some organized storms.  The net result

should be a few cells/small clusters capable of producing isolated

strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph) and marginally severe hail

(0.75-1 inch diameter hail) for a few hours later this

afternoon/evening.



..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/03/2024



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