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ACUS01 KWNS 040555

SWODY1

SPC AC 040554



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1254 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF

WESTERN/NORTHERN ID INTO WESTERN MT...



...SUMMARY...

A few strong storms are possible across parts of western and

northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this afternoon and

evening. Isolated hail and gusty winds are expected to be the

primary hazards.



...Synopsis...

An amplified upper-level pattern will persist across the CONUS

today, with deep troughs over the West and East, and a ridge over

much of the Great Plains. Over the West, a broad surface low is

forecast to extend from the Great Basin into the interior Northwest.

Across the East, a surface low is forecast to move slowly northward

off of the New England coast, as a trailing cold front sweeps

through south FL and the Gulf of Mexico. A relative dearth of

low-level moisture will tend to limit instability across most of the

CONUS, though scattered thunderstorms will again be possible across

parts of the interior Northwest, in association with the amplifying

upper trough. 



...Parts of ID into western MT...

Within the large-scale trough, an embedded mid/upper-level low will

move southeastward into northern CA later today. Increasing

large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will support

scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into western ID,

with more isolated storms possible near a surface front extending

eastward across west-central MT. With very modest low-level moisture

across the region, MLCAPE will struggle to reach 500 J/kg, but

increasingly favorable wind profiles will support organized storm

potential. Storms may struggle to reach severe intensity due to the

weak instability, but a couple marginal supercells could evolve with

time, posing a threat of isolated hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25

inch range) and gusty winds of 50-60 mph.



..Dean.. 04/04/2024



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