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ACUS48 KWNS 040859

SWOD48

SPC AC 040857



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0357 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024



Valid 071200Z - 121200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...Sunday/Day 4...

An upper-level low is forecast to move into the northern Plains on

Sunday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Mississippi

Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward

to the Ark-La-Tex, with a somewhat narrow moisture corridor located

in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development

will be possible along this corridor during the afternoon and

evening. The severe threat may remain relatively isolated due to

issues concerning weak instability and limited large-scale ascent.



...Monday/Day 5 and Tuesday/Day 6...

On Monday, an upper-level low is forecast to move into the Desert

Southwest, as mid-level flow becomes established across the

south-central U.S. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place across

the eastern two-thirds of Texas extending eastward into the lower

Mississippi Valley. The models continue to suggest that a large

cluster of thunderstorms will develop from northeast Texas into

Louisiana and southern Arkansas Monday evening. Instability and

deep-layer shear should be sufficient for a severe threat.



This moist airmass is forecast to remain in place over the

south-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an upper-level low moves through

the Desert Southwest. The moist sector is forecast to remain over

the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely

location for convective development Tuesday afternoon would be in

parts of north and east Texas, where an MCS may develop. This large

cluster could move eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley

Tuesday night. A moist warm sector combined with strong deep-layer

shear would support a severe threat, with the stronger cells

embedded in the MCS.



...Wednesday/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8...

On Wednesday and Thursday, uncertainty increases concerning

potential outcomes. The medium-range models have an upper-level

system over the south-central U.S., and show potential for a large

MCS over the western or northern Gulf of Mexico. This scenario would

likely result in a over-turned airmass in the Gulf Coast states,

which would limit severe potential. However, at this range,

considering the large spread among solutions, predictability is

quite low.



..Broyles.. 04/04/2024