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ACUS01 KWNS 041206

SWODY1

SPC AC 041205



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0705 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024



Valid 041300Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND

NORTHERN IDAHO AND INTO WESTERN MONTANA...



...SUMMARY...

A few locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of

western and northern Idaho into western Montana, mainly this

afternoon and evening.  Isolated hail and gusty winds are the

expected hazards.



...Parts of ID into western MT...

Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low and

associated trough along the West Coast.  This mid- to upper-level

feature will move southeastward into northern CA later today. 

Increasing large-scale ascent to the northeast of this low will

support scattered thunderstorm development from northern NV into

western ID, with more isolated storms possible near a surface front

extending eastward across west-central MT.  Despite very modest

low-level moisture across the region, steep lapse rates owing

primarily to cold mid-level temperatures, will yield weak buoyancy

by mid afternoon (below 500 J/kg MLCAPE).  Long hodographs in

combination with the weak instability may result in a couple of

transient supercell structures.  A localized threat of marginally

severe hail (generally in the 0.75-1.25 inch range) and gusty winds

of 50-60 mph could accompany the stronger storms.



Elsewhere, a mid-level ridge building over the Great Plains and

large-scale mid-level trough/low over the East will influence

conditions in those regions.



..Smith.. 04/04/2024



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