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ACUS01 KWNS 041627

SWODY1

SPC AC 041625



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024



Valid 041630Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS

AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ID INTO WESTERN MT...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this

afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana.



...Synopsis...

A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through

Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland

over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual

eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England.  Cold

midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable

low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped

convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley

into the Mid-Atlantic.  Out west, there will be some potential for a

strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western

ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. 

Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at

BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating

along and east-through-south of the frontal segments.  Still, there

will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong

deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs.



..Thompson/Kerr.. 04/04/2024



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