####018001785####
ACUS01 KWNS 041959

SWODY1

SPC AC 041957



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024



Valid 042000Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE

IDAHO VICINITY INTO WESTERN MONTANA...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible this

afternoon/evening from Idaho into western Montana.



...Discussion...

Current forecast areas and reasoning remain reflective of ongoing

convective evolution, such that no appreciable changes are needed at

this time.



For additional information, please refer to SWOMCD 376.



..Goss.. 04/04/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu Apr 04 2024/



...Synopsis...

A highly amplified pattern will persist over the CONUS through

Friday morning, with a deep midlevel trough moving slowly inland

over the Pacific coast, and a separate/deep low making gradual

eastward progress over the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England.  Cold

midlevel temperatures and resulting conditionally unstable

low-midlevel lapse rates will result in weak buoyancy and low-topped

convection/isolated lightning flashes today from the upper OH Valley

into the Mid-Atlantic.  Out west, there will be some potential for a

strong storm or two along the more north-south front across western

ID and up to an east-west frontal segment across western MT. 

Profiles are closer to saturated today compared to yesterday at

BOI/TFX, and associated clouds will tend to slow surface heating

along and east-through-south of the frontal segments.  Still, there

will be enough buoyancy for a low-end wind/hail threat, given strong

deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear/long hodographs.



$$