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ACUS02 KWNS 051728

SWODY2

SPC AC 051727



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN

AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...



...SUMMARY...

Strong/locally severe storms, capable of producing hail and strong

wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the central and

southern Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.  A brief tornado or

two may also occur.



...Synopsis...

While an upper low will continue to linger just off the New England

coast, the more substantial system with respect to potentially

severe convection will be a second low, shifting across the western

U.S. through the Day 1 time period and then into the central Plains

Saturday and Saturday night.



At the surface, a developing low will shift into the central Plains

through the second half of the period, with a cold front to shift

eastward into/across the central and southern Plains through the

period.



...Western Nebraska across central and eastern Kansas, and into

eastern Oklahoma...



By Saturday morning/the start of the Day 2 period, the

aforementioned western U.S. upper low will be in the process of

deepening, as a strong (100-plus kt) mid-level jet streak shifts

across Arizona/New Mexico into the southern High Plains early in the

day.



In response to the deepening low, surface cyclogenesis is expected

into the afternoon across the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border

region, with continued through the evening as the low shifts into

western/central Nebraska.



Despite a lack of moisture, daytime heating combined with steep

lapse rates aloft will result in modest afternoon destabilization,

with roughly 500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected to develop just

ahead of the evolving surface low, from southwestern Nebraska

east-southeastward northern Kansas, and then southward into the

southern Plains.  By mid afternoon, low-topped storm development is

expected, as strong ascent focused near the near the surface low,

and the cold/occluded front extending east-southeastward across

southern Nebraska.  Storms should be initially cellular, but are

likely to grow upscale into an arcing line, that may eventually

extend southward into eastern Oklahoma and possibly northeastern

Texas.



With strongly backed low-level flow, veering with height, shear will

be sufficient to support rotating updrafts -- particularly across

the Nebraska portion of the risk area.  Here, locally damaging wind

gusts and hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range may occur in

roughly the 3PM to 7PM time frame, along with potential for a couple

of brief tornadoes.  Tornado threat should remain limited due to

dewpoints expected to remain only in the low to mid 40s.



With the loss of diurnal heating, an evening convective weakening

trend is expected, with severe risk likely to have diminished to

minimal levels by late evening.



..Goss.. 04/05/2024



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