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ACUS01 KWNS 051944

SWODY1

SPC AC 051942



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0242 PM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024



Valid 052000Z - 061200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.



...Discussion...

No changes appear necessary to the ongoing outlook at this time.



..Goss.. 04/05/2024



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Apr 05 2024/



...Northern Rockies...

Associated with the exit region of the polar jet related to the

Western U.S. upper trough, forcing for ascent and modest

moisture/buoyancy will lead to at least widely scattered

thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon. These storms should generally

focus across eastern Idaho and far western Montana this afternoon,

and then additional parts of western/southern Montana and Wyoming

into this evening. Steep lapse rates and sufficient buoyancy could

allow for some stronger storms capable of gusty winds/hail, but

organized/sustained severe thunderstorms are not currently expected.



...Coastal Southern California...

Isolated low-topped thunderstorms will remain a possibility within

the post-frontal environment beneath the mid/upper-level trough,

where mid-level temperatures (500 mb) are generally between -25C to

-30C. While a couple of east/southeastward-moving stronger storms

could materialize through the afternoon near far southern California

coastal areas, severe thunderstorms are unlikely given the limited

boundary layer moisture and buoyancy (generally a couple hundred

J/kg MUCAPE at most).



$$