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ACUS02 KWNS 060526

SWODY2

SPC AC 060524



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024



Valid 071200Z - 081200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SABINE TO

WABASH VALLEYS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon

to mid-evening on Sunday, from parts of the Wabash and

Mid-Mississippi Valleys to the Ark-La-Miss and Sabine Valley.



...Synopsis...

An amplified mid/upper low over the NE vicinity will dampen as it

drifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Attendant deep surface

cyclone near central NE will occlude and weaken as it drifts east

across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley into the northern IA vicinity.

Arcing Pacific cold front/dryline should still push east through the

day, before the trailing portion in the south-central states

undergoes frontolysis Sunday evening/night. 



...Wabash/Mid-MS to the Sabine Valleys...

Isolated severe thunderstorm potential should largely focus within

about a 6-hour window from 21-03Z along and immediately ahead of the

composite front/dryline arcing from the occluding surface cyclone in

the Mid-MO Valley. With the lack of an elevated mixed layer across

much of the warm-moist sector, appreciable boundary-layer moisture

return will occur in a confined corridor ahead of the front. Upper

50s to low 60s surface dew points should reasonably spread into a

part of the Mid-MS to Wabash Valleys from the western Gulf Coast

States. Full insolation behind the boundary will yield surface

temperatures warming through the 70s behind and along it. This

should support a narrow plume of weak MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. 



Mid-level height falls will be confined north of the Mid-South

region with neutral to weak height rises expected with southern

extent. Still, adequate low-level convergence in conjunction with

negligible MLCIN should support a swath of isolated to scattered

thunderstorms towards late afternoon/early evening. Mid/upper-level

wind profiles will remain favorable for a few discrete supercells

before flow further relaxes deeper into the evening. A tornado or

two is possible, mainly in the Mid-South where stronger low-level

wind profiles overlap the northern extent of the low 60s surface dew

points. Otherwise, a mix of isolated severe hail and localized

severe wind gusts will be possible before convective intensity wanes

after sunset.



..Grams.. 04/06/2024



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