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ACUS01 KWNS 060556

SWODY1

SPC AC 060555



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1255 AM CDT Sat Apr 06 2024



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM

SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL NE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms will be possible across parts of the central Plains

this afternoon and early evening. Severe wind gusts, isolated hail,

and a couple tornadoes will all be possible.



...Central Plains vicinity...

A deep upper-level trough will take on an increasingly negative tilt

as it ejects into the central Plains later today. A strong

mid/upper-level jet (with 80-100 kt at 500 mb) will move through the

base of the trough and overspread the warm sector of a deepening

cyclone centered over the central High Plains. A cold front will

move eastward across KS/OK through the day, with an occluded portion

of the front expected to extend northwestward from north-central KS

into western/central NE. 



While the synoptic pattern favors severe-thunderstorm potential

across parts of the central Plains, the threat will be mitigated to

some extent by limited low-level moisture. Dewpoints are likely to

remain in the 40s F across most of NE, and only reach the low 50s F

into parts of central KS. However, diurnal heating beneath cold

temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support

MLCAPE increasing to near 500 J/kg. Strong ascent attendant to the

ejecting upper-level trough will aid in storm development by early

afternoon near the occluded front across central/western NE, with

development possible into northern/central KS by mid/late afternoon.

Strengthening midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear

for storm organization. A few low-topped supercells are expected,

though there may be a tendency toward more linear storm modes with

time as strong forcing overspreads the region. 



Marginal instability will tend to limit the hail threat to some

extent, though any sustained supercell could produce isolated hail

in the 1-1.5 inch diameter range. While the tornado threat may tend

to be limited by sparse low-level moisture, sufficient low-level

shear/SRH could support at least a brief tornado threat with any

stronger sustained supercell, especially in closer proximity to the

surface low. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may

eventually be needed if observational trends support more favorable

low-level moisture, and/or if confidence increases in potential for

longer-lived supercells. Otherwise, severe wind gusts in the 60-75

mph range may be the most likely hazard, as low-level lapse rates

steepen, deep-layer flow strengthens, and convection takes on a more

linear mode with time. 



While the primary severe threat is expected from southwest/central

NE into central/eastern KS, some threat could spread into eastern NE

before convection weakens by late evening. A strong storm or two

could also develop by early evening across southeast KS and eastern

OK, in response to gradually increasing moisture along/ahead of the

cold front.



..Dean/Moore.. 04/06/2024



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