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ACUS02 KWNS 070544

SWODY2

SPC AC 070542



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN

GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early

afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of

Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana.

A few tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and isolated

severe wind gusts will be possible.



...Synopsis...

A mid/upper low will drift east-northeast across the Upper Midwest

while a separate shortwave trough digs over the Southwest before

pivoting along the border with northwest Mexico. Low-level warm

theta-e advection will persist across much of the South-Central

States through the period. The primary low-level jet will be

centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX into the Ark-La-Tex

and Ark-La-Miss. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest

trough will increase across the west TX vicinity in the early

morning Tuesday.



...Southern Great Plains...

Strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest

Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early

afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated

mixed layer across west/central TX. Guidance does differ with how

far west and south this initial convection will develop into central

TX, but a favorable environment for at least a few supercells should

evolve from near the I-35 corridor across a portion of east TX. The

impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates and very fast upper-level

flow will foster an elongated hodograph within the largest portion

of the buoyancy profile. This will support a threat for very large

hail, generally favored along the southwest part of the overall

convective plume as a cluster convective mode dominates with

northern extent. Low-level hodograph curvature will also be

sufficient for a tornado threat, especially towards early evening as

winds slowly increase. 



Separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to

the dryline in west TX and its intersection with the effective warm

front/surface trough into southwest OK during the evening, and in

another round during the early morning Tuesday. Convective

development is most probable in the early evening over the northwest

TX to southwest OK vicinity, with less confidence southward in west

TX. This development will be high based initially along the fringe

of the moisture return. Outflow-dominated supercells will be capable

of producing large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts. 



MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively

undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates

become very steep (around 9 C/km) across west TX and moist advection

continues to surge west-northwest. Guidance differs on the degree of

overnight development as mid-level height falls increase late. The

00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing

convection across west TX by 12Z Tuesday, which now has support of

the 00Z HRW-FV3. The strongly sheared and very steep lapse rate

environment will yield a primary threat of very large hail in any

sustained supercells.



..Grams.. 04/07/2024



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