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ACUS03 KWNS 070731

SWODY3

SPC AC 070730



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024



Valid 091200Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX TO

THE LOWER MS VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable on Tuesday across most

of Texas to the Red and Lower Mississippi River Valleys. A few

tornadoes, significant large hail, and damaging winds are possible.



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough centered near the AZ/NM/northwest Mexico border

area at 12Z Tuesday will likely move gradually eastward into west TX

by early Wednesday. Two separate mid-level speed maxes, one curling

through the base of the trough and another farther east closer to

the northwest Gulf Coast will gradually translate eastward. Primary

surface cyclone should become established over the Lower Rio Grande

Valley beneath the eastern jet, and eventually drift along a portion

of the TX Gulf Coast. 



...TX/LA vicinity...

Several rounds of deep convection are expected across a large

portion of TX towards the Ark-La-Tex and Lower MS Valley vicinity

during the period. Greater severe weather probabilities may be

needed in later outlooks as mesoscale convective details become more

clear. For now, have highlighted a broad cat 2-SLGT risk with an

embedded significant severe area. 



Overall convective evolution appears to be messy. Primary convective

coverage during the day will likely be tied to the persistent

low-level warm theta-e advection regime, with regenerative periods

of convection continuing through the period. Upper-level winds are

progged to be weaker relative to D2-Monday, suggesting that

cluster/MCS modes will likely dominate. Nevertheless, a feed of

steep mid-level lapse rates will be maintained in convectively

undisturbed areas and strong deep-layer shear will persist for

embedded supercells. Favorable low-level shear should largely remain

focused across the northwest Gulf into the Ark-La-Miss. With signals

for robust surface heating in parts of south-southeast TX in the

afternoon, the greatest tornado potential may exist into

east-southeast TX and far western LA on Tuesday evening. 



Farther west, convection tied closer to the mid-level shortwave

trough and surface trough/dryline should redevelop Tuesday afternoon

in west TX. This activity should persist and/or separately develop

into central TX Tuesday night. A mix of significant large hail and

severe wind gusts should be the primary hazards within this regime.



..Grams.. 04/07/2024



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