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ACUS48 KWNS 070902

SWOD48

SPC AC 070901



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0401 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024



Valid 101200Z - 151200Z



...DISCUSSION...

An active severe weather pattern across the South should persist

through mid-week.



...D4-5...

Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave

trough over the west TX vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. Non-GFS/GEFS

guidance continues to indicate a slower eastward progression through

Thursday. This shortwave impulse should phase into a broader upper

trough being carved out as a northern-stream wave digs into the

Upper Midwest to Midwest. This will yield substantial flow

amplification through the troposphere, mainly late Wednesday into

Thursday across the East. However, the overall thermodynamic

environment should become increasingly limited. 



Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across the central

Gulf Coast States early Wednesday within a stout low-level warm

theta-e advection regime. This will undoubtedly hamper downstream

destabilization to the northeast on D4. But on the southern flank of

this convective plume, strong low-level shear will foster some

tornado/wind risk. Guidance such as the 00Z ECMWF and UKMET do

indicate appreciable diurnal destabilization in its wake over at

least the Sabine Valley to Ark-La-Miss vicinity just ahead of the

surface cyclone track. The 00Z ECMWF ensemble still indicates a fair

degree of spread on where the cyclone should be by Wednesday

evening, from LA to the Mid-South. As such, have maintained a

relatively broad 15% area, especially given the intensifying flow

fields supporting tornado/wind potential persisting into Wednesday

night. Lower-level winds should become very strong by Thursday

morning yielding a high shear-low CAPE environment across at least a

part of the Southeast into Thursday afternoon. This region appears

to have the best chance of adequate boundary-layer heating to

support at least a damaging wind threat before the convective band

shifts off the South Atlantic Coast. Still, strong to very strong

low-level flow will also exist farther north into the Upper OH

Valley and Mid-Atlantic States where a lower-probability

area-of-interest remains evident for D5. 



...D6-8...

In the wake of the amplified upper trough departing the East, severe

potential should be low for a couple days. Air mass modification

should ensue towards next weekend from the western Gulf northward

across the Great Plains. Indications of the next shortwave trough

ejecting eastward in the West may increase severe potential into a

portion of the Plains towards D8.



..Grams.. 04/07/2024