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ACUS02 KWNS 071730

SWODY2

SPC AC 071729



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024



Valid 081200Z - 091200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early

afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of

the southern Plains into the Mississippi Delta region. Large to very

large hail is the main threat, especially over northwest Texas,

though isolated tornadoes and severe wind gusts will also be

possible.



...Synopsis...

A mid-level trough will deepen over the Desert Southwest, preceded

by multiple embedded perturbations which are poised to traverse the

southern Plains tomorrow/Monday. A broad belt of low-level moisture

return will become established over the southern Plains during this

period as colder mid-level temperatures overspread the south-central

U.S., supporting at least moderate instability by afternoon.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms should occur across the southern

Plains. The southerly low-level jet beneath strong mid-level

westerlies will promote strong vertical wind shear over the warm

sector, that in tandem with moderate instability will support some

of the thunderstorms becoming strong to severe tomorrow afternoon

and evening, with all severe hazards possible.



...Southern Plains...

The first round of thunderstorms should initiate over portions of

central TX by afternoon along the warm front. At least mid 60s F

dewpoints, overspread by 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will boost

MLCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. 30+ kts of south-southeasterly flow

beneath 50+ kts of southwesterly 500 mb winds will support modestly

curved low-level hodographs with mid/upper-level elongation,

quantified by around 50 kts of effective bulk shear and at least 200

m2/s2 effective SRH. Multicells and supercells will form along the

warm front with large hail and a few tornadoes the main threat. A

few stones may exceed 2 inches in diameter.



Meanwhile, low-level moisture will also advect northwestward into

northwestern TX and extreme southwestern OK. Surface dewpoints

should reach into the 50s F, and will be overspread by 8+ C/km

mid-level lapse rates, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon

peak heating. Strong vertical wind shear will also be in place, with

elongated hodographs contributing to over 50 kts of effective bulk

shear. Multicells and supercells will be the dominant modes of

convection. The main threat will be large hail (multiple instances

of 2+ inch diameter hail will be possible). Damaging gusts will also

be possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out given modest low-level

hodograph curvature, though the tornado threat should be tempered by

limited low-level moisture. Later in the evening, storms should

merge into clusters and small bowing segments, where a few damaging

gusts will eventually become the main concern.



...Mississippi Delta Region...

As the warm front moves north through the day, low-level warm-air

and moisture advection will boost MUCAPE to over 1000 J/kg over

portions of central LA into western MS. Elevated convection should

develop during the afternoon in the warm-air advection regime, where

7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs will encourage

multicell/supercell development. Large hail will be the main threat

with the more dominant elevated supercells.



..Squitieri.. 04/07/2024



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