####018002337####
ACUS03 KWNS 080729

SWODY3

SPC AC 080729



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL

GULF COAST STATES...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday into Wednesday night

across parts of the Gulf Coast States and Deep South. Tornadoes,

some strong, and damaging winds should be the primary hazards.



...Synopsis...

Primary feature of interest will be a southern-stream shortwave

trough over the west TX vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. This shortwave

impulse should phase into a broader amplified trough being carved

out as a northern-stream wave digs into the Upper Midwest. This will

yield substantial flow amplification through the troposphere,

commencing by Wednesday afternoon as a surface cyclone deepens

northeastward from southeast TX across the Mid-South.



...Central Gulf Coast to the Deep South...

Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing from the Sabine to

Lower MS Valleys vicinity at 12Z Wednesday. Some guidance suggests a

plume of moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will still be

present ahead of this activity back into the northwest Gulf. A surge

of richer Gulf moisture is progged to advect north-northeast just

ahead of the morning activity, yielding moderate buoyancy across at

least south-southeast LA. Convective intensity should diurnally

increase by late morning/midday within already strong low-level

shear. The initial thermodynamic environment coupled with further

strengthening of tropospheric wind fields should yield a threat for

strong supercells through the afternoon, generating in the LA to

south MS vicinity and spreading northeastward. Eventually in time

and with north/east extent, an increasingly limited thermodynamic

environment, through both weaker mid and low-level lapse rates and

deep convection regenerating southwestward towards buoyancy plume,

should curtail a more widespread severe threat. Still, given the

very strong low-level winds by Wednesday night, a conditional

high-shear/low-CAPE tornado environment should remain present where

surface dew points can reach at least into the mid 60s.



..Grams.. 04/08/2024



$$