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ACUS48 KWNS 080856

SWOD48

SPC AC 080855



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0355 AM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024



Valid 111200Z - 161200Z



...DISCUSSION...

...D4/Thursday...

A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered on the MS Valley

at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses. The

southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as the

northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A

cyclogentic surface low in the Mid-South vicinity should further

deepen as it tracks into southern Ontario by early Friday. Dual

areas of relatively greater severe potential are evident. 



Fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with mid to upper 60s

surface dew points from north FL into the Carolinas. While mid-level

lapse rates will be weak and stronger boundary-layer heating is

confined to FL, adequate warming should occur ahead of a convective

band to foster at least a damaging wind/brief tornado threat from

late morning into the afternoon. 



Over the Upper OH Valley vicinity, a synoptically favorable corridor

of organized severe may develop just ahead of the deepening surface

cyclone. Primary uncertainty is with the actual spatial extent of

any severe threat that can develop midday into the afternoon, given

a moderate amount of spread in timing the cyclone track. For now,

have highlighted the overall consensus region where the combination

of weak buoyancy and a meridional supercell wind profile appears

most probable.  



...D8/Monday...

Air mass modification will ensue northward from the western Gulf

towards the weekend. Indications of the next shortwave trough

ejecting eastward in the West should increase severe potential into

parts of the Plains around early next week. 00Z deterministic

guidance provide an illusion of consistency for next Monday

afternoon/evening from the southern High to the central Great

Plains. However, spread within respective ensembles and run-to-run

consistency of individual control members are too large to warrant a

highlight beyond an area-of-interest.



..Grams.. 04/08/2024