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ACUS03 KWNS 090727

SWODY3

SPC AC 090726



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0226 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE

SOUTHEAST AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across parts

of the Southeast and the Upper Ohio Valley.



...Synopsis...

A full-latitude mid/upper trough should be centered near the MS

Valley at 12Z Thursday, comprised of two primary shortwave impulses.

The southern-stream impulse should pivot northeast and accelerate as

the northern-stream impulse becomes the dominant embedded feature. A

steadily deepening surface cyclone should track northeast from the

Lower OH Valley to the Lake Huron vicinity during the period. 



...Southeast...

A convective swath should be ongoing from parts of the FL Panhandle

into GA on Thursday morning. The southern portion of this activity

will have the best chance to maintain a damaging wind and embedded

tornado threat from late morning into the early afternoon as

stronger boundary-layer heating occurs across FL. Large-scale ascent

will weaken with southern extent through the day given the

northeastward track of the surface cyclone, in addition to low-level

winds becoming more veered in time over the FL Peninsula. 



Farther north, fast 850-700 mb winds should be coincident with a

plume of mid to upper 60s advecting north into the Carolinas.

However, diabatic surface heating may be quite limited by abundant

downstream cloudiness/stratiform rain north of the deeper convection

in FL. Mid-level lapse rates will also be weak and overall

instability may remain meager. Still, the high-shear/low-CAPE setup

with at least low-topped convection likely persisting until it

progresses off the coast will foster some threat for sporadic

damaging winds and a few brief tornadoes, mainly midday through

early evening. How far north and how long the severe threat persists

into Thursday night is unclear, but low probabilities appear

warranted through at least the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. 



...Upper OH Valley...

A synoptically favorable corridor for a few supercells and organized

clusters should develop east of the gradually deepening surface

cyclone track. This region should have a period where an

overspreading mid-level dry slot coincides with the diurnal heating

cycle, before early afternoon convection develops within the

left-exit region of the strong mid-level jet across the Southeast

and southern Appalachians. While MLCAPE will remain weak, a

meridional supercell wind profile should be present before low-level

flow becomes veered from the southwest. A couple tornadoes, isolated

to scattered damaging winds, and isolated severe hail are possible.



..Grams.. 04/09/2024



$$