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ACUS48 KWNS 090852

SWOD48

SPC AC 090850



Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0350 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024



Valid 121200Z - 171200Z



...DISCUSSION...

Severe potential should be low for a few days in the wake of the

eastern U.S. trough shifting offshore. Primary feature of concern

will be an amplified upper low, initially off the CA coast on D4,

that gets kicked east by an upstream wave digging towards the

Pacific Northwest through early next week. Air mass modification

will ensue northward from the western Gulf by late D4 with multiple

days to improve the low-level moisture profile amid well

above-normal surface temperatures. 00Z ensemble guidance, especially

the ECENS, has largely trended towards yesterday's 00Z deterministic

guidance, with most members depicting pronounced lee cyclogenesis

around the eastern CO vicinity. Sufficient confidence exists to

initiate a severe weather highlight for D7 based on the consensus

timing of the shortwave trough ejection over the Southwest. Severe

potential will likely persist into D8 with an area-of-interest from

the southern Great Plains to the Upper Midwest. Spread is too large

within the latest deterministic runs and ensemble members to warrant

a 15 percent highlight yet.



..Grams.. 04/09/2024