####018002019####
ACUS01 KWNS 100054

SWODY1

SPC AC 100053



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0753 PM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024



Valid 100100Z - 101200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM

SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from

south-central Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley. All hazards are

anticipated (including very large hail and an isolated strong

tornado or two), with damaging gusts to 75 mph possible with a

potential squall line later tonight.



...01z Update...



Leading edge of large-scale ascent is spreading across west

TX/northeast Mexico early this evening. Water-vapor imagery supports

this with moistening midlevels arcing from near MAF to west of the

international border along the Rio Grande Valley. Boundary layer

steepened significantly west of the dryline across Mexico this

afternoon, and high-based convection has attempted to organize from

south of DRT to Monterrey Mexico. 00z sounding from DRT supports

this post-dryline air mass with very steep lapse rates noted through

6km. There is increasing concern that isolated severe thunderstorms

will eventually evolve along the western fringe of the deeper moist

boundary layer, then grow upscale into a linear MCS before racing

northeast toward the lower Sabine River Valley by 10/12z. Given the

large-scale support, strong shear, and very steep lapse rates,

environmental conditions appear supportive of this scenario. 01z

outlook will reflect this scenario by increasing severe probs into

south-central TX.



Downstream, persistent low-level warm advection will maintain

scattered-numerous thunderstorms from southeast TX into central MS.

Earlier thoughts regarding the severe potential continue, including

the possibility for an isolated strong tornado and perhaps hail in

excess of 2 inches with supercells.



..Darrow.. 04/10/2024



$$