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ACUS01 KWNS 100540

SWODY1

SPC AC 100539



Day 1 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1239 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024



Valid 101200Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...



...SUMMARY...

Widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the

central Gulf Coast States. The potential will exist for several

tornadoes, a few of which may be strong (EF2+), and widespread

damaging winds, some of which may be particularly damaging.



...Gulf States...



Well-defined upper low is currently located over the Big Bend region

of west TX. This feature is forecast to eject northeast into the

mid-South, eventually opening up late in the period as a

northern-stream short-wave trough digs into the upper MS Valley.

This ejection will be aided in part by a 70-80kt 500mb speed max

that will translate across south TX into AL by 11/12z. LLJ will

remain focused across LA into the early part of the day1 period;

however, a quick eastward shift into AL is expected by early evening

as height falls overspread this region. While this very dynamic

system will aid large-scale ascent, low-level warm advection will

prove instrumental in much of the convection through the period.



Early this morning, an elongated corridor of convection was noted

from northwestern AL-central MS-northern LA-southeast TX. This

activity is a continuation of Monday evening thunderstorm complex,

and will greatly influence buoyancy across the northern Gulf States

due to substantial precipitation/overturning. This

southwest-northeast zone of storms will likely oscillate along this

zone through mid day before the upper trough shunts this activity

east. At 0530z, a strong/severe band of thunderstorms has developed

over deep south TX. This is the leading edge of stronger forcing

which should advance to near the Sabine River Valley by the start of

the period.



Current thinking is an organized band of severe thunderstorms,

possibly a bowing squall line, will be located with the front near

the TX/LA border at sunrise. This MCS should advance east during the

day within a strongly sheared environment characterized by MLCAPE

around 2000 J/kg. Widespread damaging winds should accompany this

linear band of storms. As the boundary layer warms, isolated

discrete supercells could develop ahead of the main squall line. A

few strong tornadoes could develop with this type of activity if it

evolves. Given the extensive precipitation currently noted across

the northern Gulf States, the primary corridor of severe should

extend across LA-southern half of MS into southern AL.



..Darrow/Bentley.. 04/10/2024



$$